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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199605-199607

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
2
6
9
1
4
6
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
14
16
16
46
1
2
6
9
15
19
22
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
9
0
9
0
9
0
9
9
18
55
82
9
36
55
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
25
29
29
82
2
4
11
16
27
34
39
100

hitrate: 0.636 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.25 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.07 2.42 0.41
Heidke skill score: 0.455 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: 0.290 true Heidke skill score: 0.071
Kuipers skill score: 0.455 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: 0.265 true Kuipers skill score: 0.070
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.667
threat score:
0.000 0.327 0.240
equitable threat score:
-0.048 0.175 0.267
equitable threat score:
-0.017 0.012 0.115
probability of detection:
0.000 0.250 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.842 0.273
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.652 0.333
samples: 11 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 19.64 %coverage: 100.00