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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199605-199607

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
4
7
11
0
6
7
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
15
14
15
44
0
4
7
11
15
19
22
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
8
0
8
0
8
0
8
0
31
54
85
0
46
54
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
27
25
27
79
0
7
13
20
27
34
39
100

hitrate: 0.615 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.17 1.57
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.07 2.32 0.50
Heidke skill score: 0.423 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.244 true Heidke skill score: 0.041
Kuipers skill score: 0.423 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: 0.040
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.636
threat score:
0.000 0.286 0.269
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.097 0.212
equitable threat score:
-0.017 -0.027 0.124
probability of detection:
0.000 0.167 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.737 0.318
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.364
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.682 0.364
samples: 13 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 23.21 %coverage: 100.00