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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199605-199607

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
2
6
8
0
3
6
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
15
16
16
47
0
2
6
8
15
19
22
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
11
0
11
0
0
0
0
0
22
67
89
0
33
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
27
29
29
84
0
4
11
14
27
34
39
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.07 2.47 0.36
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: 0.182 true Heidke skill score: 0.072
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: 0.167 true Kuipers skill score: 0.072
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.750
threat score:
0.000 0.320 0.250
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.250
equitable threat score:
-0.017 0.002 0.137
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.842 0.273
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.660 0.250
samples: 9 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 16.07 %coverage: 100.00