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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199605-199607

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
2
5
8
1
3
5
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
14
16
17
47
1
2
5
8
15
19
22
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
11
0
11
0
0
0
0
11
22
56
89
11
33
56
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
25
29
30
84
2
4
9
14
27
34
39
100

hitrate: 0.556 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 1.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.07 2.47 0.36
Heidke skill score: 0.333 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.100 true Heidke skill score: 0.045
Kuipers skill score: 0.333 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.087 true Kuipers skill score: 0.045
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.625
threat score:
0.000 0.320 0.200
equitable threat score:
-0.059 0.000 0.156
equitable threat score:
-0.017 0.002 0.085
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.842 0.227
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.375
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.660 0.375
samples: 9 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 16.07 %coverage: 100.00