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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199606-199608

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
4
8
9
21
4
9
9
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
11
14
35
4
8
9
21
14
19
23
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
5
0
5
18
36
41
95
18
41
41
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
18
20
25
63
7
14
16
38
25
34
41
100

hitrate: 0.455 hitrate: 0.357
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.11 2.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.84 0.91
Heidke skill score: 0.182 Heidke skill score: 0.036
true Heidke skill score: 0.077 true Heidke skill score: -0.014
Kuipers skill score: 0.182 Kuipers skill score: 0.036
true Kuipers skill score: 0.072 true Kuipers skill score: -0.014
threat score:
0.000 0.111 0.429
threat score:
0.000 0.256 0.257
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.069 0.033
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.028 0.014
probability of detection:
0.000 0.111 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.579 0.391
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.571
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.686 0.571
samples: 22 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 39.29 %coverage: 100.00