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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199606-199608

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
3
0
3
4
5
6
15
4
9
6
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
10
13
17
40
4
5
6
15
14
19
23
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
0
5
0
16
0
16
21
26
32
79
21
47
32
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
18
23
30
71
7
9
11
27
25
34
41
100

hitrate: 0.474 hitrate: 0.339
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 0.33 2.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.07 2.11 0.65
Heidke skill score: 0.211 Heidke skill score: 0.009
true Heidke skill score: 0.208 true Heidke skill score: -0.027
Kuipers skill score: 0.211 Kuipers skill score: 0.009
true Kuipers skill score: 0.219 true Kuipers skill score: -0.027
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.400
threat score:
0.000 0.283 0.188
equitable threat score:
-0.044 0.208 0.123
equitable threat score:
-0.017 -0.018 -0.006
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.684 0.261
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.675 0.600
samples: 19 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 33.93 %coverage: 100.00