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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199606-199608

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
3
4
7
8
19
4
10
8
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
12
15
37
4
7
8
19
14
19
23
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
14
0
14
18
32
36
86
18
45
36
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
18
21
27
66
7
13
14
34
25
34
41
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.357
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.30 2.38
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.95 0.83
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.036
true Heidke skill score: 0.199 true Heidke skill score: -0.010
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.036
true Kuipers skill score: 0.197 true Kuipers skill score: -0.010
threat score:
0.000 0.300 0.421
threat score:
0.000 0.273 0.235
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.189 0.090
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.018 0.007
probability of detection:
0.000 0.300 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.632 0.348
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.579
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.676 0.579
samples: 22 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 39.29 %coverage: 100.00