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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199606-199608

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
3
1
4
4
6
7
17
4
9
8
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
13
16
39
4
6
7
17
14
19
23
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
14
5
19
19
29
33
81
19
43
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
18
23
29
70
7
11
13
30
25
34
41
100

hitrate: 0.476 hitrate: 0.357
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.44 2.12
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.05 0.74
Heidke skill score: 0.214 Heidke skill score: 0.036
true Heidke skill score: 0.141 true Heidke skill score: -0.006
Kuipers skill score: 0.214 Kuipers skill score: 0.036
true Kuipers skill score: 0.136 true Kuipers skill score: -0.006
threat score:
0.000 0.300 0.389
threat score:
0.000 0.289 0.212
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.155 0.045
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.007 0.001
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.875
probability of detection:
0.000 0.684 0.304
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.250 0.588
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.667 0.588
samples: 21 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 37.50 %coverage: 100.00