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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199606-199608

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
4
6
5
15
4
7
5
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
13
18
41
4
6
5
15
14
19
23
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
6
0
6
25
38
31
94
25
44
31
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
18
23
32
73
7
11
9
27
25
34
41
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.321
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.14 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.16 0.65
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: -0.018
true Heidke skill score: 0.080 true Heidke skill score: -0.058
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: -0.018
true Kuipers skill score: 0.084 true Kuipers skill score: -0.057
threat score:
0.000 0.143 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.277 0.152
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.086 0.030
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.028 -0.043
probability of detection:
0.000 0.143 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.684 0.217
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.683 0.667
samples: 16 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 28.57 %coverage: 100.00