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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199606-199608

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
6
6
16
4
6
6
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
13
17
40
4
6
6
16
14
19
23
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
38
38
100
25
38
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
18
23
30
71
7
11
11
29
25
34
41
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.339
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.11 0.70
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: 0.009
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.032
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: 0.009
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.031
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.375
threat score:
0.000 0.283 0.182
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.018 -0.022
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.684 0.261
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.625
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.675 0.625
samples: 16 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 28.57 %coverage: 100.00