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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199606-199608

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
5
13
4
4
5
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
15
18
43
4
4
5
13
14
19
23
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
31
31
38
100
31
31
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
18
27
32
77
7
7
9
23
25
34
41
100

hitrate: 0.385 hitrate: 0.357
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.26 0.57
Heidke skill score: 0.077 Heidke skill score: 0.036
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.002
Kuipers skill score: 0.077 Kuipers skill score: 0.036
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.002
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.385
threat score:
0.000 0.319 0.161
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.013 -0.013
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.789 0.217
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.615
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.651 0.615
samples: 13 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 23.21 %coverage: 100.00