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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199607-199609

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
7
11
7
25
9
11
7
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
9
9
31
7
11
7
25
20
20
16
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
0
0
7
26
41
26
93
33
41
26
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
23
16
16
55
13
20
13
45
36
36
29
100

hitrate: 0.259 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.18 3.57
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.55 1.56
Heidke skill score: -0.111 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: -0.015 true Heidke skill score: -0.059
Kuipers skill score: -0.111 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: -0.017 true Kuipers skill score: -0.060
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.280
threat score:
0.000 0.214 0.206
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.067 0.028
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.067 -0.005
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.450 0.438
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.720
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.710 0.720
samples: 27 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 48.21 %coverage: 100.00