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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199607-199609

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
3
1
6
2
2
5
9
4
5
6
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
18
18
11
47
2
2
5
9
20
20
16
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
20
7
40
13
13
33
60
27
33
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
32
32
20
84
4
4
9
16
36
36
29
100

hitrate: 0.533 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.20 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.35 0.56
Heidke skill score: 0.300 Heidke skill score: 0.116
true Heidke skill score: 0.255 true Heidke skill score: 0.099
Kuipers skill score: 0.300 Kuipers skill score: 0.116
true Kuipers skill score: 0.243 true Kuipers skill score: 0.098
threat score:
0.000 0.375 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.367 0.250
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.219
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.038 0.139
probability of detection:
0.000 0.600 0.833
probability of detection:
0.000 0.900 0.312
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.444
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.617 0.444
samples: 15 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 26.79 %coverage: 100.00