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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199607-199609

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
2
1
1
4
1
4
5
10
4
5
6
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
18
16
11
45
1
4
5
10
20
20
16
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
0
0
7
13
7
7
27
7
27
33
67
27
33
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
32
29
20
80
2
7
9
18
36
36
29
100

hitrate: 0.467 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 0.80 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 2.25 0.62
Heidke skill score: 0.200 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: 0.149 true Heidke skill score: 0.074
Kuipers skill score: 0.200 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: 0.142 true Kuipers skill score: 0.073
threat score:
0.250 0.125 0.455
threat score:
0.050 0.327 0.238
equitable threat score:
0.196 -0.050 0.143
equitable threat score:
0.033 -0.002 0.118
probability of detection:
0.250 0.200 0.833
probability of detection:
0.050 0.800 0.312
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.750 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.644 0.500
samples: 15 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 26.79 %coverage: 100.00