CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199607-199609

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
2
4
7
2
3
4
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
18
18
12
48
1
2
4
7
20
20
16
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
0
0
11
0
11
0
11
11
22
44
78
22
33
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
32
32
21
86
2
4
7
13
36
36
29
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.33 1.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 2.40 0.44
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.116
true Heidke skill score: 0.438 true Heidke skill score: 0.096
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.116
true Kuipers skill score: 0.404 true Kuipers skill score: 0.094
threat score:
0.500 0.333 0.571
threat score:
0.050 0.360 0.211
equitable threat score:
0.438 0.250 0.229
equitable threat score:
0.033 0.026 0.118
probability of detection:
0.500 0.333 1.000
probability of detection:
0.050 0.900 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.429
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.625 0.429
samples: 9 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 16.07 %coverage: 100.00