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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199608-199610

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
3
7
6
16
4
7
6
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
15
16
9
40
3
7
6
16
18
23
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
0
0
6
18
41
35
94
24
41
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
27
29
16
71
5
13
11
29
32
41
27
100

hitrate: 0.353 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.14 2.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.74 1.07
Heidke skill score: 0.029 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: -0.005 true Heidke skill score: 0.036
Kuipers skill score: 0.029 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: -0.005 true Kuipers skill score: 0.035
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.375
threat score:
0.000 0.340 0.240
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.054 0.034
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.014 0.083
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.696 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.625
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.600 0.625
samples: 17 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 30.36 %coverage: 100.00