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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199608-199610

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
5
5
11
2
5
5
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
17
18
10
45
1
5
5
11
18
23
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
0
0
8
8
42
42
92
17
42
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
32
18
80
2
9
9
20
32
41
27
100

hitrate: 0.417 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.20 2.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.96 0.73
Heidke skill score: 0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.116
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.045
Kuipers skill score: 0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.116
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.043
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.455
threat score:
0.000 0.360 0.238
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.075 0.065
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.015 0.114
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.783 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.545
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.600 0.545
samples: 12 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 21.43 %coverage: 100.00