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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199608-199610

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
4
4
10
2
4
4
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
16
19
11
46
2
4
4
10
18
23
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
40
40
100
20
40
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
34
20
82
4
7
7
18
32
41
27
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.00 0.67
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.116
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.041
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.116
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.039
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.400
threat score:
0.000 0.380 0.190
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.003 0.072
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.826 0.267
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.587 0.600
samples: 10 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 17.86 %coverage: 100.00