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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199608-199610

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
4
7
5
16
5
7
5
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
14
16
10
40
4
7
5
16
18
23
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
0
0
6
24
41
29
94
29
41
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
25
29
18
71
7
13
9
29
32
41
27
100

hitrate: 0.294 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.14 3.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.74 1.07
Heidke skill score: -0.059 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: -0.010 true Heidke skill score: 0.008
Kuipers skill score: -0.059 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: -0.011 true Kuipers skill score: 0.008
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.312
threat score:
0.000 0.340 0.192
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.054 0.026
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.014 0.033
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.696 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.688
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.600 0.688
samples: 17 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 30.36 %coverage: 100.00