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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199608-199610

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2
2
6
4
12
3
7
4
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
16
17
11
44
2
6
4
12
18
23
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
7
0
14
14
43
29
86
21
50
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
30
20
79
4
11
7
21
32
41
27
100

hitrate: 0.357 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.29 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.91 0.80
Heidke skill score: 0.036 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.060 true Heidke skill score: -0.008
Kuipers skill score: 0.036 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.066 true Kuipers skill score: -0.008
threat score:
0.000 0.125 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.340 0.174
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.067
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.034 0.040
probability of detection:
0.000 0.143 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.739 0.267
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.614 0.667
samples: 14 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 25.00 %coverage: 100.00