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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199608-199610

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2
2
4
5
11
3
5
5
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
16
19
10
45
2
4
5
11
18
23
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
8
0
15
15
31
38
85
23
38
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
34
18
80
4
7
9
20
32
41
27
100

hitrate: 0.462 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.40 2.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.96 0.73
Heidke skill score: 0.192 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: 0.125 true Heidke skill score: 0.074
Kuipers skill score: 0.192 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: 0.118 true Kuipers skill score: 0.070
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.455
threat score:
0.000 0.388 0.238
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.044 0.114
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.017 0.114
probability of detection:
0.000 0.200 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.826 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.545
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.578 0.545
samples: 13 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 23.21 %coverage: 100.00