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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199608-199610

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
4
5
10
1
4
5
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
17
19
10
46
1
4
5
10
18
23
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
40
50
100
10
40
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
34
18
82
2
7
9
18
32
41
27
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.00 0.67
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.071
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.066
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.380 0.250
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.003 0.134
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.826 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.587 0.500
samples: 10 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 17.86 %coverage: 100.00