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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199609-199611

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
1
5
0
4
1
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
38
10
3
51
0
4
1
5
38
14
4
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
80
20
100
0
80
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
68
18
5
91
0
7
2
9
68
25
7
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.196
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 5.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.64 1.25
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.205
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.049
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.205
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.080
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.000 0.182 0.125
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.065 0.084
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.714 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.804 0.800
samples: 5 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 8.93 %coverage: 100.00