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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199609-199611

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
2
6
1
3
2
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
37
11
2
50
1
3
2
6
38
14
4
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
17
50
33
100
17
50
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
66
20
4
89
2
5
4
11
68
25
7
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.232
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.57 1.50
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.152
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.002
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.152
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.003
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.208 0.250
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.037 0.208
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.786 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.780 0.667
samples: 6 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 10.71 %coverage: 100.00