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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199609-199611

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
3
0
2
1
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
38
12
3
53
0
2
1
3
38
14
4
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
67
33
100
0
67
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
68
21
5
95
0
4
2
5
68
25
7
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.232
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.79 0.75
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.152
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.011
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.152
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.018
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.218 0.167
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.030 0.136
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.857 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.774 0.667
samples: 3 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 5.36 %coverage: 100.00