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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199610-199612

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
3
3
0
0
4
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
19
19
15
53
0
0
3
3
19
19
18
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
25
0
0
75
75
0
0
100
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
34
34
27
95
0
0
5
5
34
34
32
100

hitrate: 0.750 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- -- 0.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.79 0.17
Heidke skill score: 0.625 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.082
Kuipers skill score: 0.625 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: nan true Kuipers skill score: 0.082
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.750
threat score:
0.000 0.358 0.167
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.029 0.119
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.750
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.642 0.000
samples: 4 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 7.14 %coverage: 100.00