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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199611-199701

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
0
3
3
1
0
1
2
1
0
5
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
14
24
15
53
1
0
1
2
15
24
17
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
17
17
0
0
50
50
17
0
17
33
17
0
83
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
25
43
27
95
2
0
2
4
27
43
30
100

hitrate: 0.167 hitrate: 0.446
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 -- 0.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.07 2.21 0.12
Heidke skill score: -0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.170
true Heidke skill score: -0.200 true Heidke skill score: 0.044
Kuipers skill score: -0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.170
true Kuipers skill score: -0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.039
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.167
threat score:
0.000 0.453 0.056
equitable threat score:
-0.091 0.000 -0.154
equitable threat score:
-0.017 0.042 0.023
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.200
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.059
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.547 0.500
samples: 6 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 10.71 %coverage: 100.00