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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199611-199701

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
0
0
2
2
1
0
0
1
1
0
4
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
14
24
15
53
1
0
0
1
15
24
17
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
40
40
0
0
40
40
20
0
0
20
20
0
80
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
25
43
27
95
2
0
0
2
27
43
30
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 -- 0.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.13 2.21 0.06
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: -0.316 true Heidke skill score: 0.014
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: -0.750 true Kuipers skill score: 0.012
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.453 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.154 0.000 -0.190
equitable threat score:
-0.033 0.042 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.547 1.000
samples: 5 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 8.93 %coverage: 100.00