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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199611-199701

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
2
1
1
4
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
14
23
14
51
1
1
0
2
15
24
17
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
50
50
0
0
17
17
17
17
0
33
17
17
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
5
5
25
41
25
91
2
2
0
4
27
43
30
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 1.00 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 2.12 0.12
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.116
true Heidke skill score: -0.500 true Heidke skill score: -0.008
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.116
true Kuipers skill score: -0.667 true Kuipers skill score: -0.007
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.442 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.143 -0.091 -0.286
equitable threat score:
-0.047 0.038 -0.033
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.958 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.549 1.000
samples: 6 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 10.71 %coverage: 100.00