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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199611-199701

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
4
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
14
24
14
52
1
0
0
1
15
24
17
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
60
60
0
0
20
20
20
0
0
20
20
0
80
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
5
5
25
43
25
93
2
0
0
2
27
43
30
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 -- 0.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 2.17 0.06
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: -0.389 true Heidke skill score: 0.019
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: -0.875 true Kuipers skill score: 0.017
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.462 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.176 0.000 -0.190
equitable threat score:
-0.047 0.058 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.538 1.000
samples: 5 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 8.93 %coverage: 100.00