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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199612-199702

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
2
2
2
6
2
2
4
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
15
33
50
2
2
2
6
4
17
35
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
25
25
25
25
75
25
25
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
27
59
89
4
4
4
11
7
30
63
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.304
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.00 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.94 0.17
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.045
true Heidke skill score: -0.333 true Heidke skill score: -0.052
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.045
true Kuipers skill score: -0.300 true Kuipers skill score: -0.067
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.288 0.051
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.143 -0.200
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.005 -0.050
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.882 0.057
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.700 0.667
samples: 8 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 14.29 %coverage: 100.00