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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199612-199702

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
2
2
0
4
2
2
4
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
15
35
52
2
2
0
4
4
17
35
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
25
25
0
50
25
25
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
27
63
93
4
4
0
7
7
30
63
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.268
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.06 0.11
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.098
true Heidke skill score: -0.600 true Heidke skill score: -0.087
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.098
true Kuipers skill score: -0.600 true Kuipers skill score: -0.115
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.278 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.200 -0.333
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.021 -0.068
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.882 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.712 1.000
samples: 8 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 14.29 %coverage: 100.00