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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199612-199702

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
2
2
1
5
2
2
3
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
15
34
51
2
2
1
5
4
17
35
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
29
29
29
29
14
71
29
29
43
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
27
61
91
4
4
2
9
7
30
63
100

hitrate: 0.143 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.00 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.00 0.14
Heidke skill score: -0.286 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: -0.400 true Heidke skill score: -0.070
Kuipers skill score: -0.286 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: -0.375 true Kuipers skill score: -0.091
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.143
threat score:
0.000 0.283 0.026
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.167 -0.235
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.013 -0.059
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.000 0.882 0.029
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.706 0.800
samples: 7 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 12.50 %coverage: 100.00