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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199612-199702

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
0
0
1
1
2
5
4
11
2
5
8
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
2
12
28
42
2
5
4
11
4
17
35
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
20
20
0
0
7
7
13
33
27
73
13
33
53
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
5
5
4
21
50
75
4
9
7
20
7
30
63
100

hitrate: 0.267 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.20 1.38
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 2.47 0.31
Heidke skill score: -0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: -0.310 true Heidke skill score: -0.106
Kuipers skill score: -0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: -0.295 true Kuipers skill score: -0.134
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.267
threat score:
0.000 0.255 0.095
equitable threat score:
-0.087 -0.059 -0.204
equitable threat score:
-0.032 -0.022 -0.082
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.706 0.114
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.636
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.714 0.636
samples: 15 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 26.79 %coverage: 100.00