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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199612-199702

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
4
8
2
2
4
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
15
31
48
2
2
4
8
4
17
35
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
25
50
100
25
25
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
27
55
86
4
4
7
14
7
30
63
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.339
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.82 0.23
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.009
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.016
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.009
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.020
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.300 0.103
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.012 -0.029
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.882 0.114
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.688 0.500
samples: 8 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 14.29 %coverage: 100.00