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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
9
23
32
0
11
23
34

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
11
12
23
0
9
23
32
0
21
35
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
0
3
0
3
0
3
0
26
68
94
0
32
68
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
0
20
21
41
0
16
41
57
0
38
63
100

hitrate: 0.706 hitrate: 0.607
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.09 1.39
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.10 0.91
Heidke skill score: 0.559 Heidke skill score: 0.411
true Heidke skill score: 0.169 true Heidke skill score: 0.196
Kuipers skill score: 0.559 Kuipers skill score: 0.411
true Kuipers skill score: 0.136 true Kuipers skill score: 0.205
threat score:
0.000 0.091 0.719
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.523
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.063 0.131
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.097 0.125
probability of detection:
0.000 0.091 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.524 0.657
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.281
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.522 0.281
samples: 34 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 60.71 %coverage: 100.00