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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
11
24
35
0
12
24
36

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
10
11
21
0
11
24
35
0
21
35
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
3
0
31
67
97
0
33
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
18
20
38
0
20
43
63
0
38
63
100

hitrate: 0.694 hitrate: 0.607
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.08 1.46
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.00 1.00
Heidke skill score: 0.542 Heidke skill score: 0.411
true Heidke skill score: 0.108 true Heidke skill score: 0.162
Kuipers skill score: 0.542 Kuipers skill score: 0.411
true Kuipers skill score: 0.083 true Kuipers skill score: 0.162
threat score:
0.000 0.083 0.686
threat score:
0.000 0.312 0.522
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.057 0.057
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.088 0.088
probability of detection:
0.000 0.083 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.476 0.686
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.314
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.524 0.314
samples: 36 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 64.29 %coverage: 100.00