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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
9
26
35
0
9
27
36

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
12
9
21
0
9
26
35
0
21
35
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
0
25
72
97
0
25
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
21
16
38
0
16
46
63
0
38
63
100

hitrate: 0.722 hitrate: 0.679
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.11 1.30
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.00 1.00
Heidke skill score: 0.583 Heidke skill score: 0.518
true Heidke skill score: -0.053 true Heidke skill score: 0.314
Kuipers skill score: 0.583 Kuipers skill score: 0.518
true Kuipers skill score: -0.037 true Kuipers skill score: 0.314
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.722
threat score:
0.000 0.400 0.591
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.026 -0.026
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.186 0.186
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.963
probability of detection:
0.000 0.571 0.743
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.257
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.429 0.257
samples: 36 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 64.29 %coverage: 100.00