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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
0
9
21
30
0
10
22
32

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
12
14
26
0
9
21
30
0
21
35
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
6
0
28
66
94
0
31
69
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
21
25
46
0
16
38
54
0
38
63
100

hitrate: 0.688 hitrate: 0.589
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.20 1.36
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.24 0.86
Heidke skill score: 0.531 Heidke skill score: 0.384
true Heidke skill score: 0.070 true Heidke skill score: 0.164
Kuipers skill score: 0.531 Kuipers skill score: 0.384
true Kuipers skill score: 0.055 true Kuipers skill score: 0.171
threat score:
0.000 0.091 0.677
threat score:
0.000 0.343 0.477
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.036 0.036
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.089 0.089
probability of detection:
0.000 0.100 0.955
probability of detection:
0.000 0.571 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.300
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.538 0.300
samples: 32 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 57.14 %coverage: 100.00