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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
5
0
11
12
23
0
11
17
28

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
10
23
33
0
11
12
23
0
21
35
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
18
18
0
39
43
82
0
39
61
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
18
41
59
0
20
21
41
0
38
63
100

hitrate: 0.429 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.45 1.35
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.57 0.66
Heidke skill score: 0.143 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: -0.325 true Heidke skill score: -0.162
Kuipers skill score: 0.143 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: -0.294 true Kuipers skill score: -0.181
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.429
threat score:
0.000 0.227 0.261
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.140 -0.140
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.075 -0.075
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.706
probability of detection:
0.000 0.476 0.343
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.478
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.697 0.478
samples: 28 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 50.00 %coverage: 100.00