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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
11
18
29
0
11
19
30

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
10
17
27
0
11
18
29
0
21
35
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
0
37
60
97
0
37
63
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
18
30
48
0
20
32
52
0
38
63
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.500
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.09 1.53
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.29 0.83
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: 0.250
true Heidke skill score: -0.065 true Heidke skill score: -0.009
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: 0.250
true Kuipers skill score: -0.053 true Kuipers skill score: -0.010
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.600
threat score:
0.000 0.263 0.391
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.032 -0.032
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.004 -0.004
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.947
probability of detection:
0.000 0.476 0.514
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.379
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.630 0.379
samples: 30 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 53.57 %coverage: 100.00