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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
9
17
26
0
9
18
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
12
18
30
0
9
17
26
0
21
35
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
0
33
63
96
0
33
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
21
32
54
0
16
30
46
0
38
63
100

hitrate: 0.630 hitrate: 0.518
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.11 1.44
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.43 0.74
Heidke skill score: 0.444 Heidke skill score: 0.277
true Heidke skill score: -0.071 true Heidke skill score: 0.053
Kuipers skill score: 0.444 Kuipers skill score: 0.277
true Kuipers skill score: -0.056 true Kuipers skill score: 0.057
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.630
threat score:
0.000 0.308 0.386
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.034 -0.034
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.027 0.027
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.944
probability of detection:
0.000 0.571 0.486
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.346
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.600 0.346
samples: 27 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 48.21 %coverage: 100.00