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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199702-199704

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
5
0
6
3
2
2
7
2
1
14
17
6
8
16
30

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
5
0
6
5
17
11
33
2
1
14
17
8
23
25
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
17
0
20
10
7
7
23
7
3
47
57
20
27
53
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
9
0
11
9
30
20
59
4
2
25
30
14
41
45
100

hitrate: 0.567 hitrate: 0.571
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.87 1.06
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 1.43 0.68
Heidke skill score: 0.350 Heidke skill score: 0.357
true Heidke skill score: 0.272 true Heidke skill score: 0.294
Kuipers skill score: 0.350 Kuipers skill score: 0.357
true Kuipers skill score: 0.268 true Kuipers skill score: 0.292
threat score:
0.091 0.154 0.737
threat score:
0.077 0.436 0.500
equitable threat score:
-0.020 0.012 0.497
equitable threat score:
0.012 0.135 0.314
probability of detection:
0.167 0.250 0.875
probability of detection:
0.125 0.739 0.560
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.714 0.176
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.485 0.176
samples: 30 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 53.57 %coverage: 100.00