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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199702-199704

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
3
5
1
9
2
2
12
16
5
9
13
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
6
19
13
38
2
2
12
16
8
23
25
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
7
0
7
11
19
4
33
7
7
44
59
19
33
48
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
0
4
11
34
23
68
4
4
21
29
14
41
45
100

hitrate: 0.630 hitrate: 0.554
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.40 1.00 1.23
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 1.65 0.64
Heidke skill score: 0.444 Heidke skill score: 0.330
true Heidke skill score: 0.372 true Heidke skill score: 0.242
Kuipers skill score: 0.444 Kuipers skill score: 0.330
true Kuipers skill score: 0.352 true Kuipers skill score: 0.233
threat score:
0.000 0.385 0.706
threat score:
0.000 0.452 0.414
equitable threat score:
-0.056 0.200 0.462
equitable threat score:
-0.029 0.129 0.222
probability of detection:
0.000 0.556 0.923
probability of detection:
0.000 0.826 0.480
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.444 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.250
samples: 27 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 48.21 %coverage: 100.00