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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199702-199704

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
0
3
2
4
1
7
1
1
3
5
3
8
4
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
0
3
7
19
22
48
1
1
3
5
8
23
25
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
20
0
20
13
27
7
47
7
7
20
33
20
53
27
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
0
5
13
34
39
86
2
2
5
9
14
41
45
100

hitrate: 0.467 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.87 1.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.38 2.09 0.20
Heidke skill score: 0.200 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: 0.143 true Heidke skill score: -0.011
Kuipers skill score: 0.200 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: 0.147 true Kuipers skill score: -0.011
threat score:
0.000 0.364 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.365 0.111
equitable threat score:
-0.111 0.037 0.357
equitable threat score:
-0.041 -0.022 0.031
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.750
probability of detection:
0.000 0.826 0.120
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.429 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.604 0.400
samples: 15 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 26.79 %coverage: 100.00