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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199702-199704

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
9
4
14
1
1
5
7
2
10
9
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
22
20
49
1
1
5
7
8
23
25
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
5
43
19
67
5
5
24
33
10
48
43
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
39
36
88
2
2
9
13
14
41
45
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.482
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.40 0.78
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.13 0.28
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.223
true Heidke skill score: 0.382 true Heidke skill score: 0.115
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.223
true Kuipers skill score: 0.355 true Kuipers skill score: 0.109
threat score:
0.000 0.600 0.455
threat score:
0.000 0.440 0.185
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.280 0.250
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.063 0.079
probability of detection:
0.000 0.900 0.556
probability of detection:
0.000 0.957 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.357 0.286
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.551 0.286
samples: 21 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 37.50 %coverage: 100.00