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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199702-199704

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
7
3
10
1
1
5
7
1
8
8
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
22
20
49
1
1
5
7
8
23
25
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
41
18
59
6
6
29
41
6
47
47
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
39
36
88
2
2
9
13
14
41
45
100

hitrate: 0.706 hitrate: 0.482
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.25 0.88
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.13 0.28
Heidke skill score: 0.559 Heidke skill score: 0.223
true Heidke skill score: 0.444 true Heidke skill score: 0.115
Kuipers skill score: 0.559 Kuipers skill score: 0.223
true Kuipers skill score: 0.425 true Kuipers skill score: 0.109
threat score:
0.000 0.636 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.440 0.185
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.364 0.254
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.063 0.079
probability of detection:
0.000 0.875 0.625
probability of detection:
0.000 0.957 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.300 0.286
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.551 0.286
samples: 17 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 30.36 %coverage: 100.00