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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199702-199704

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
9
8
18
1
9
9
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
14
17
38
1
9
8
18
8
23
25
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
5
5
47
42
95
5
47
47
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
25
30
68
2
16
14
32
14
41
45
100

hitrate: 0.421 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.11 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.65 0.72
Heidke skill score: 0.132 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: -0.100 true Heidke skill score: -0.051
Kuipers skill score: 0.132 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: -0.096 true Kuipers skill score: -0.048
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.421
threat score:
0.000 0.298 0.229
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.050 -0.050
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.051 -0.001
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.889
probability of detection:
0.000 0.609 0.320
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.556
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.632 0.556
samples: 19 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 33.93 %coverage: 100.00