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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199702-199704

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
10
9
20
1
10
10
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
13
16
36
1
10
9
20
8
23
25
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
5
5
48
43
95
5
48
48
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
23
29
64
2
18
16
36
14
41
45
100

hitrate: 0.429 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.10 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.57 0.80
Heidke skill score: 0.143 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: -0.091 true Heidke skill score: -0.053
Kuipers skill score: 0.143 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: -0.087 true Kuipers skill score: -0.050
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.429
threat score:
0.000 0.283 0.250
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.045 -0.046
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.057 0.003
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.900
probability of detection:
0.000 0.565 0.360
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.550
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.639 0.550
samples: 21 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 37.50 %coverage: 100.00