CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199703-199705

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
2
2
0
4
4
2
9
15
8
5
9
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
24
8
6
38
4
2
9
15
30
11
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
5
0
14
9
9
0
18
18
9
41
68
36
23
41
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
0
5
43
14
11
68
7
4
16
27
54
20
27
100

hitrate: 0.591 hitrate: 0.339
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.38 0.80 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 3.45 1.00
Heidke skill score: 0.386 Heidke skill score: 0.009
true Heidke skill score: 0.351 true Heidke skill score: 0.138
Kuipers skill score: 0.386 Kuipers skill score: 0.009
true Kuipers skill score: 0.341 true Kuipers skill score: 0.175
threat score:
0.222 0.286 0.600
threat score:
0.065 0.195 0.429
equitable threat score:
0.115 0.179 0.323
equitable threat score:
0.013 0.016 0.293
probability of detection:
0.250 0.400 1.000
probability of detection:
0.067 0.727 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.500 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.789 0.400
samples: 22 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 39.29 %coverage: 100.00